The field of forecasting has progressed a great deal during the last five decades in both new theoretical developments and considerable knowledge gained through practical experience from applications. At the same time, there have been breakthrough advancements in computer speed and memory as well as in software that provide ample opportunities to harness the power of forecasting, improve its accuracy and reliability and make it more practical and relevant for business and non- profit organizations.
PYTHIA incorporates all available knowledge and experience in the field of forecasting while, at the same time, fully utilizing the new capabilities of computers and software. PYTHIA is aimed at practicing managers (at the level of financial directors, product managers, production/inventory managers and planners/analysts) and it is designed and developed with a single purpose in mind, that of making the task of managerial forecasting as straightforward, user-friendly and practical as possible while not compromising on the question of scientific vigor and statistical accuracy. Pythia is an innovative system of business forecasting. It is an effort to incorporate all the knowledge and experience in the field of forecasting and at the same time Pythia uses the new capabilities of the computing and operating systems.
PYTHIA is designed and built to satisfy four objectives. First, any manager, without a technical/statistical background, should be able to use it easily and intuitively. Second, since practically all data contains “systematic noise” from external sources, the user should be able to identify and adjust his/her data in a simple, straightforward manner. Third, information about the data and the forecasts should be readily available to the user who should, in addition, be able to input his/her knowledge and experience into such forecasts by incorporating judgmental knowledge and/or budgetary and other objectives in order to improve the accuracy of the statistical methods. Finally, human forecasters are often overoptimistic while also including their own biases into their forecasts. Forecasters are, therefore, given comparative information about the accuracy of their own forecasts, in comparison to the statistical ones, in order to identify systematic biases and correct them in the future when forecasting again.
PYTHIA is made up of the following modules each focusing on a particular aspect of data analysis/adjustments, managerial forecasting, monitoring and reporting:
• Data Analysis and Adjusments
• Long Τerm( Forecasting)
• Estimating relationships
|2013-04-24 English 1.73 MB 1576|